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Z. Naturforsch. 67a, 308 – 316
(2012)
doi:10.5560/ZNA.2012-0013
The Ordered Network Structure of M ≥ 8 Great Earthquakes and their Prediction in Mainland China
College of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Received August 30, 2011 / revised December 25, 2011 / published online May 2, 2012
Reprint requests to: K. M.; E-mail:
menkepei@gmail.com
China is one of the countries which have the most earthquake disasters in the world. A total of 23 M ≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in Mainland China from 1303 to 2010. The seismic activity of M ≥ 8 earthquakes has had an obvious self-organized orderliness. The main ordered values are 252 ~ 258 a, 108 ~ 112 a, 94 ~ 98 a, 44 ~ 47 a, 24 ~ 25 a, 16 ~ 19 a, and 11 ~ 14 a. According to the information forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng and combining ordered analysis with complex network technology, we build an informational ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 great earthquakes in Mainland China and try to explore the
practical method for M ≥ 8 great earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics. In this paper, we have summarized the prediction research on two great earthquakes (the 2001 Kunlunshan M8.1 and the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake) during the beginning of the 21st century in western Mainland China. At last, with the method of ordered network structure, we present a new prediction opinion: the future M ≥ 8 great earthquakes will happen in 2026 and 2065 pre and post in Mainland China. The results show that a M ≥ 8 great earthquake could be predicted and the network feature is the formation mechanism of great earthquakes. The ordered network method has a unique effect on moderate term and long term prediction for M ≥ 8 great earthquakes.
Key words: Mainland China; Informational Ordered Network Structure; 2001 Kunlunshan M8.1 Earthquake; 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake; M ≥ 8 Great Earthquake Prediction.